Southeast Division:
Last year, the Southeast Division was one of the most competitive divisions in the MBL, with the two strong Washington clubs ending the year dead-even at 96-66. And there were many league members who felt that it was actually the third place finisher, the Atlanta Stoencutters, who had the best team on paper. Atlanta finished at 85-77 but had a run differential that suggested they should have topped at least 90 wins.
In any case, all three teams appear to be back strong in ’03 even as Miami continues their lengthy rebuild following a World Series appearance in 2000. So looking at Atlanta and their two capital rivals, which team is likely to take the crown? Currently, the Tribe are 19-11, Atlanta is 19-14 and the Senators are at 18-15. In head-to-head matchups, Atlanta split with both Washington clubs, while the Senators took 3 of 4 against the Tribe. The Senators, however, have struggled more against the Metro Division, losing two out of three to Boston and both New York clubs. The Tribe have had some odd series. Rather incredibly, they swept the mighty New York Bombers and then lost all three to struggling Cincinnati. They also swept Brooklyn and Cleveland and took two out of three in Detroit. Corky received four first place votes for manager of the year last season and he appears to have his club playing above their heads again this season.
Looking at run differential (this reporter’s favorite predicting tool), smart money may be on Atlanta. They have a +27 run differential, compared to the Tribe’s +10 and the Senators’ -8. Atlanta also has the weakest record in one-run contests, a statistic that has a tendency to balance out (although it should be noted that it never did for the Stonecutters last year).
The Stonecutters appear to have the strongest offense in the division, currently in the middle of the pack league-wide in runs scored. Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting .341 while Manny Ramirez (who seems to be perpetually involved in trade rumors) has 6 home runs and 24 RBI in the young season. Up the middle, Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera are both strong hitters and one would expect Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman to hit eventually.
Hitting may be a concern for the two Washington teams. The Tribe are fourth from the bottom in runs scored and the Senators are also in the bottom quarter. The Senators have been led by catcher Brad Fullmer, who is batting .370 while Jeff Bagwell has 7 bombs for the Tribe. But both teams may need to get offensive help to stay with Atlanta.
On the mound, relief pitching always reigns supreme for the Tribe. Brenden Donnelly and Shawn Chacon may prove to be the new Scott Stewart-ish relievers for Corky this year, and Mariano Rivera closes things out at the end. Somehow three starters have managed to start 28 of the Tribe’s 30 games this year on route to a 3.45 team ERA. There is some sense that Corky is using smoke and mirrors to have gotten his club to 19-11 start. But since Washington has moved from Tampa Bay to begin the 2001 season, they have found nothing but success.
The Senators have a strong pitching core that could make them contenders, especially if they can add a bat or two. Barry Zito is 6-1 and Zach Day is 3-1 with a sub 3.00 ERA. If they can get Derek Lowe going (he currently has a 6.23 ERA) and get strong years from rookie Rich Harden and former #1 pick, Brian Lawrence, the Sens should play a role.
Overall, my prediction is that Atlanta starts to pull away with this division as lady luck begins to favor the Cutters more. The Tribe will likely hang around, however, and get to 90 wins. The Senators also have a lot of talent and should also be in that range. I could see both Washington clubs competing with Cleveland for the second wild card, although as always, everything will depend on what moves the GMs make between now and the deadline.
Metro Division:
Continuing our look around the MBL in these early days of the 2003 season, let’s take a look at the Metro Division. Last year, was a rather incredible year for this group of clubs. The New York Rippers finished in first place, won 122 games (an all-time record) while Boston won 110 games, the second most in the MBL. The team with the third most wins also hailed from the Metro, the 109 win New York Bombers, who took the championship over Minnesota in six games.
For the Bombers, who were originally all-in for ’03, they are now in the enviable position of having already won a championship in 2002 while playing for 2003. There is a lot of evidence that they may have the league’s best team again this year. The Bombers have already scored 240 runs, 30 more than any other team. And their pitching is nearly as good. They have a 3.45 team ERA, with a whole host of top-notch relievers (who have a combined 3.28 ERA) including Curt Leskanic, Rheal Cormier, Rod Beck and Rafael Soriano. Just like last season, those relievers are going to prove to be very tough in the playoffs.
Still, that said, they are second place, a game back of first-place Boston, who comes in with the league’s best record at 21-9. Looking for their fourth consecutive 100-win season, the Beaneaters would also like to do something they have not done much of --- win when it counts. Easily nabbing the wild card but finishing well back of the Rippers the last two years, one could easily imagine a similar scenario this year against another New York club.
The Beaneaters have hit this year. Boston again has a balanced attack featuring lefty sluggers who have been hitting a lot of balls onto Bedford Avenue behind Ebbets Field. Geoff Jenkins and Jason Giambi each have 7 bombs apiece while Eric Chavez has 21 RBI and Larry Walker has 18 RBI. Boston’s management appears to be a bit more aggressive this year to win now, acquiring Steve Finley and Russ Ortiz from Minnesota for a number one pick last week. Boston has also led the league so far in pitching. They currently have a 3.03 team ERA led by starters Tim Hudson and Scott Shields and three strong relievers out of the pen, Latroy Hawkins, Paul Quantrill and Octavio Dotel (although Dotel has struggled early on).
Boston did take 3 out of 4 in their first meeting with the Bombers, but history suggests that the Beaneaters might have trouble keeping pace with a .700 win percentage unless they are willing to sell the farm to stay with New York.
The other Big Apple team is the puzzling Rippers. This team that has won 237 games over the last two seasons still has some big offensive figures including Barry Bonds and Jim Thome, who top the Classic League in home runs with 10 and 12 respectively. Overall, the Rippers are in the middle of the pack in runs scored, however. Pitching could be a problem. Rip City currently has a 4.95 team ERA and with Randy Johnson having a rare off season (6.35 ERA), it may be tough for the Rippers to compete for another division crown. Whether the “Mad Tradesman” wants to go for a wild card this year probably depends a lot on the Rippers’ prospects for 2004. The Big Unit is back in ’04 and the club has a very good roster on paper for the upcoming season, so we’ll have to see if the Rippers play for a championship in that season or use the Bombers’ model and try to win both years.
Fans in Brooklyn are getting restless. The Bums have never had a winning season and an 11-22 start and a very tough schedule has fans singing the blues again in 2003. There have been some bright spots --- Jerry Hairston is hitting .325 and Robin Ventura has had a hot start while Randy Wolf has a 2.87 ERA in six starts. But overall, Brooklyn appears to be headed towards another long year as changes in ownership have plagued this franchise (now on their fourth owner). There are hopes that Mike can begin to turn around this franchise which has had an unfortunate division pairing.
Predictions for the Metro? It could be a good race if Boston can hang with the Bombers, but I think it more likely that the Bombers pull away and win 110-115 while the Beaners will struggle to reach that lofty plateau. The Rippers probably have enough talent to make a run at a wild card if they want to make some deals but it’s probably more likely they will wait for 2004 to make their splash. Da Bums? Well, with the schedule they face and a history of rebuilds, it may be time to think about trading pieces for 2004 and beyond.
