Guest Blog: Divisional Write ups part 3

Today Matt looks at the final division the Pacific and his over all prediction on who will win it all. -Craig

Pacific Division:

It’s always been tough for Viper fans. Always a poor club but never dreadful, the San Diego Vipers are one of only two franchises to never have a winning record (Brooklyn is the other) in the MBL. But it’s starting to look like this may finally be the Vipers’ year. Off to a 20-13 start, San Diego, currently has the league’s second best team ERA (3.23) and has been led by Kip Wells (5-2, 1.23 ERA) and Jeremi Gonzalez (2.39 ERA). Overall the team’s starting staff has an ERA of 3.08 and if Curt Schilling can right the ship (5.59 ERA), then look out.

Hitting, however, may prove to be the Viper’s bugaboo. They are only hitting .245/.319/.388 as a club and if they want to win the division they may need to improve on that mark. Richie Sexson is off to a good start hitting .301 with 10 dingers but no other Viper has hit more than 3 round trippers so far this year.

Following the Vipers, are three clubs whose future for 2003 remains uncertain. Oakland has won the division the last two seasons but are 17 and 16 and have lost four straight. They do have a +13 run differential so far this year. The Osprey have a solid offense at .261/.333/.437 and pretty good pitching (3.83 team ERA) led by Javier Vazquez’s 3.54 mark. The bullpen has been especially strong with Ugueth Urbina, Lance Carter, David Riske and Jamie Walker all supplying sub 2.00 ERAs. The starting staff will have to pitch well too if Oakland wants to threepeat as division winners.

Seattle and San Francisco seem to be on the cusp of buyers and sellers. Both teams have -9 run differentials with San Francisco at 17-19 and Seattle at 14-19. Neither team is really hitting the ball (.243 and .250 batting averages respectively) and Seattle has just a 5.12 team ERA. The Quakers have pitched alright at 3.98 but their bullpen has been much better than their starting staff. My sense is both teams may end up playing for next year before long. Still, it’s always possible that a club like this could follow Cleveland’s model for 2000 and go for it now. The decision-making in Oakland, Seattle and San Francisco may hinge on how strong the Vipers turn out to be. If SD starts to pull away, these three clubs may play for next year. If the Vipers stay with the pack, it could be anyone’s division. Still, my prediction would be that it is an Oakland-San Diego race with the Vipers enjoying the edge.

Overall Predictions:

Having looked at all six divisions, let’s make some predictions for the year. My money would be on Detroit, the Bombers and Atlanta to win the three divisions in the Classic while Houston, Los Angeles and San Diego are Expansion champs. The Wild Card races are a little tougher to call. Boston’s hot start seems likely to put them back in the Wild Card hosting position. The Washingtons may battle again to the wire and Cleveland looks strong. I would favor the Tribe to get the 5^th spot in the Classic. In the Expansion, I think Arizona has a good shot at one of the wild cards while Oakland and Baltimore seem likely to be in the mix. I’ll say Oakland comes away with the 5^th spot.

I think the Bombers are likely to find a way into the Series again. Boston, Atlanta and Detroit are all strong contenders but in the end, Larry is an excellent manager, a GM who wants to win now and a club that has the talent to do it. In the Expansion, LA’s starting staff will be very tough in the playoffs but this league is really wide-open. Houston, Arizona, LA, Baltimore, Oakland and San Diego all seem about even money to take the league. My money would be on whatever GM wants to win now and in the end, I think the Buffaloes are likely that team. I think we may end up with our first repeat champion, if the Bombers can take care of business as I would expect.

Guest Blog: Division Write ups part 2

Matt takes a look at the Western and Continental division in today's post. Come back tomorrow for the Pacific and the overall prediction on who Matt thinks will take the league this year. -Craig 

Western Division:

The division that produced the MBL’s first two champions (Colorado in 2000 and Houston in 2001) is quickly becoming one of the most intriguing divisions of the 2003 season. To begin with, the Buffaloes are hot in contention again. Having taken the division the last two seasons, Houston is off to a 22-11 start. They have some strong starters including Roy Halladay (already 7-2 with a 2.42 ERA) , CC Sabathia, John Thomson (3-0, 2.54) and iron man Darrell May. Their pen includes some big names as well: Recently acquired Keith Foulke, Troy Percival and Kaz Sasaki await the later innings. Houston combines a team ERA of 3.71 with an offense that has score 189 runs already. Andres Galarraga is hitting .382, Roberto Alomar is at .356 and Reggie Sanders has 8 home runs. With a +56 run differential, Houston appears to be the real deal, although it is interesting to note that they have played much better away from the cavernous Astrodome than inside it. It will be interesting to see if the Buffaloes are all in for 2003 and bolster the club with another strong starter and a few more offensive weapons.

Speaking of offensive weapons, the Arizona Apaches are belting the ball, leading the MBL in home runs. They now have 61 bombs on the year following a 4 game sweep of Colorado, including league leader Raffy Palmeiro with 13, Jose Valentin with 11, Gary Sheffield with 10 and Hank Blalock at 8. Of course, as the Tampa Bay Stone Ponys could tell you, home run hitting is not everything. The Apaches have a 4.02 team ERA led by Jerome Williams, who is 5-2 with a 2.35 ERA. The recent acquisition of Wade Miller from Minnesota may help. Miller has a 2.57 ERA since joining the Apaches. To contend with Houston, Arizona will probably have to sure up its bullpen. The Apaches have just a 4.57 ERA out of the bullpen with Brian Fuentes particularly struggling. Still with a top-ranked offense, Arizona should certainly compete all year, as their +45 run differential indicates.

The St. Louis Sliders have been a pleasant surprise this year. After a couple of miserable campaigns in which they ran through owners as quickly as they gave up runs, the Sliders have delighted their fans, getting off to a 20-13 start. How have they done it? Largely through pitching. While the offense is again toward the bottom of the MBL, St. Louis has an impressive 3.73 ERA, led by Steve Trachsel and Adam Eaton, who have ERAs of 2.23 and 2.58 respectively. Livan Hernandez and Wilson Alvarez have also pitched well in the rotation, giving the Slider starting staff a 3.50 ERA. Can the Sliders keep it up? I dare say it may be difficult. St. Louis has only a +7 run differential and have definitely had Lady Luck on their side early in the year. They are 6-2 in one run games and 3-0 in extra innings. With two tough division rivals, it is hard to say if they will wind up as buyers or sellers at the deadline.

The Briar Jumpers got off to a reasonable start, winning the first two games of the MBL season, splitting with Arizona and Houston and taking two out of three against the Millers. Since then the roof has caved in. They have lost their last 13 straight games and are just 2-23 in their last 25. They have already begun shipping their one and done players out the door and are likely to be in rebuilding mode in 2003. The good news: They are currently in pole position for the #1 pick in the ’04 draft as the only team yet to win 10 games.

Predictions: The outcome of this division may depend on which GM is willing to sell off the future to win now. And that may have to do with each club’s 04 prospects. Both Arizona and Houston appear to be focused on winning now. My gut says Houston may have the easier path to a division title, but both teams should be in the hunt. Things look bright in St. Louis but their roster may not be strong enough to compete with Houston and Arizona. It seems unlikely that Lance would make moves for 2003 given that ’04 and beyond could be very strong for this franchise. Colorado has a long way to go to reach their dizzying 2000 heights.

Continental Division:

The Continental has been a puzzling division so far this year. In 2002, Minnesota and LA battled for the top spot all year with the Millers pulling away down the stretch and eventually going all the way to the World Series. Baltimore upset the Diablos in the Wild Card. This year, LA topped many betting markets to walk away with the division but it was the Stouts who took the lead in the early going. One of only two franchises to make the playoffs in each of the MBL’s first three seasons, Baltimore certainly has some weapons in ’03. Alex Rodriguez, the reigning 2002 Expansion League MVP, already has 5 bombs and 21 RBI (although he is hitting just .240) while Aubrey Huff has 10 home runs and always-consistent Todd Helton has 9. Sammy Sosa was brought in from Colorado to sure up the lineup and has hit six homers and driven in 17 with the Stouts so far.

Prospects in Baltimore may lie with their starters. As always, this seems to be a weak spot on the Stout squad. Baltimore has just a 4.50 ERA from their starting staff that includes Tom Glavine (4.05), Woody Williams (4.11) and Matt Clement (5.65). Only Joel Pineiro has pitched well (3.44). Sensing that the staff needs to be bolstered, Bruce has acquired Al Leiter and Tim Wakefield and both have pitched well since joining the club. Baltimore is currently at 18-15 and just a half game back of Los Angeles, who is off to a 20-16 start. Interestingly, however, LA is under water with a -7 run differential while Baltimore is +22.

Things have not gone as planned so far for the Diablos. The Diablos began the year by splitting with lowly Milwaukee and then losing two out of three to San Francisco, Houston, Arizona and San Diego. Since then they have gotten hot, winning their last seven and sweeping both Colorado and Seattle. We’ll have to see if they are now righting the ship.

LA boasts of a wicked starting staff. Three-time Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez is 6-1 but has a rather high (for him) 3.61 ERA. That would figure to go down. Meanwhile Jason Schmidt has been unhittable with a 1.55 ERA. The Diablos tough start may have had as much to do with Johan Santana, Rick Reed and Kevin Milwood. All three have been underperforming in their starting roles. John Smoltz is a brutal closer to face in late innings. He’s pitched 12 innings so far this year and is yet to give up a run.

We’ll have to see if LA makes some deals to sure up the lineup. They are hitting just .241 as a team with a .316 OBP as compared with Baltimore’s .262 and .334. Dave Ross is off to a hot start with 11 homers and Carlos Beltran has hit 7 out but overall the Diablo lineup has struggled.

Minnesota seemed to have a contending squad coming into the season but after a .500 start, the Millers seem to be playing for the future. They have made a number of deals in recent weeks that seem to be evidence that Walt is gearing up for another big run in ’04 and beyond. Albert Pujols, however, is very much focused on this year. He is hitting .375 with 10 homers and 28 RBI. The Miller pitching staff, however, has just a 4.55 team ERA and that is unlikely to improve now that Russ Ortiz, Wade Miller, Tim Redding, Matt Morris and Keith Foulke have been dealt.

In Milwaukee, there is hope for better days ahead. John took over the franchise in 2001 when it was in dismal shape and is slowly nursing the club back to health. Future stars like Ted Lilly, Victor Martinez and Brandon Webb give Phantom fans hope but it’s been a slow road back since the Milwaukee blew a chance for a division title in the waning days of 2000.

With Milwaukee and Minnesota playing for the future, it will be a battle between Baltimore’s offense and LA’s pitching. Like the Western Division, the winning team is probably the one that can add enough pieces to pull ahead this year. Whether Bruce and Thomas put all their chips on their ’03 clubs is a question still awaiting an answer.

Guest Blog: Divisional Write ups part 1

Matt continues his write ups for all the divisions in this piece. Here is the Southeast and Metro division. I hope Matt is right about the Southeast :) -Craig

Southeast Division:

Last year, the Southeast Division was one of the most competitive divisions in the MBL, with the two strong Washington clubs ending the year dead-even at 96-66. And there were many league members who felt that it was actually the third place finisher, the Atlanta Stoencutters, who had the best team on paper. Atlanta finished at 85-77 but had a run differential that suggested they should have topped at least 90 wins.

In any case, all three teams appear to be back strong in ’03 even as Miami continues their lengthy rebuild following a World Series appearance in 2000. So looking at Atlanta and their two capital rivals, which team is likely to take the crown? Currently, the Tribe are 19-11, Atlanta is 19-14 and the Senators are at 18-15. In head-to-head matchups, Atlanta split with both Washington clubs, while the Senators took 3 of 4 against the Tribe. The Senators, however, have struggled more against the Metro Division, losing two out of three to Boston and both New York clubs. The Tribe have had some odd series. Rather incredibly, they swept the mighty New York Bombers and then lost all three to struggling Cincinnati. They also swept Brooklyn and Cleveland and took two out of three in Detroit. Corky received four first place votes for manager of the year last season and he appears to have his club playing above their heads again this season.

Looking at run differential (this reporter’s favorite predicting tool), smart money may be on Atlanta. They have a +27 run differential, compared to the Tribe’s +10 and the Senators’ -8. Atlanta also has the weakest record in one-run contests, a statistic that has a tendency to balance out (although it should be noted that it never did for the Stonecutters last year).

The Stonecutters appear to have the strongest offense in the division, currently in the middle of the pack league-wide in runs scored. Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting .341 while Manny Ramirez (who seems to be perpetually involved in trade rumors) has 6 home runs and 24 RBI in the young season. Up the middle, Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera are both strong hitters and one would expect Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman to hit eventually.

Hitting may be a concern for the two Washington teams. The Tribe are fourth from the bottom in runs scored and the Senators are also in the bottom quarter. The Senators have been led by catcher Brad Fullmer, who is batting .370 while Jeff Bagwell has 7 bombs for the Tribe. But both teams may need to get offensive help to stay with Atlanta.

On the mound, relief pitching always reigns supreme for the Tribe. Brenden Donnelly and Shawn Chacon may prove to be the new Scott Stewart-ish relievers for Corky this year, and Mariano Rivera closes things out at the end. Somehow three starters have managed to start 28 of the Tribe’s 30 games this year on route to a 3.45 team ERA. There is some sense that Corky is using smoke and mirrors to have gotten his club to 19-11 start. But since Washington has moved from Tampa Bay to begin the 2001 season, they have found nothing but success.

The Senators have a strong pitching core that could make them contenders, especially if they can add a bat or two. Barry Zito is 6-1 and Zach Day is 3-1 with a sub 3.00 ERA. If they can get Derek Lowe going (he currently has a 6.23 ERA) and get strong years from rookie Rich Harden and former #1 pick, Brian Lawrence, the Sens should play a role.

Overall, my prediction is that Atlanta starts to pull away with this division as lady luck begins to favor the Cutters more. The Tribe will likely hang around, however, and get to 90 wins. The Senators also have a lot of talent and should also be in that range. I could see both Washington clubs competing with Cleveland for the second wild card, although as always, everything will depend on what moves the GMs make between now and the deadline.

Metro Division:

Continuing our look around the MBL in these early days of the 2003 season, let’s take a look at the Metro Division. Last year, was a rather incredible year for this group of clubs. The New York Rippers finished in first place, won 122 games (an all-time record) while Boston won 110 games, the second most in the MBL. The team with the third most wins also hailed from the Metro, the 109 win New York Bombers, who took the championship over Minnesota in six games.

For the Bombers, who were originally all-in for ’03, they are now in the enviable position of having already won a championship in 2002 while playing for 2003. There is a lot of evidence that they may have the league’s best team again this year. The Bombers have already scored 240 runs, 30 more than any other team. And their pitching is nearly as good. They have a 3.45 team ERA, with a whole host of top-notch relievers (who have a combined 3.28 ERA) including Curt Leskanic, Rheal Cormier, Rod Beck and Rafael Soriano. Just like last season, those relievers are going to prove to be very tough in the playoffs.

Still, that said, they are second place, a game back of first-place Boston, who comes in with the league’s best record at 21-9. Looking for their fourth consecutive 100-win season, the Beaneaters would also like to do something they have not done much of --- win when it counts. Easily nabbing the wild card but finishing well back of the Rippers the last two years, one could easily imagine a similar scenario this year against another New York club.

The Beaneaters have hit this year. Boston again has a balanced attack featuring lefty sluggers who have been hitting a lot of balls onto Bedford Avenue behind Ebbets Field. Geoff Jenkins and Jason Giambi each have 7 bombs apiece while Eric Chavez has 21 RBI and Larry Walker has 18 RBI. Boston’s management appears to be a bit more aggressive this year to win now, acquiring Steve Finley and Russ Ortiz from Minnesota for a number one pick last week. Boston has also led the league so far in pitching. They currently have a 3.03 team ERA led by starters Tim Hudson and Scott Shields and three strong relievers out of the pen, Latroy Hawkins, Paul Quantrill and Octavio Dotel (although Dotel has struggled early on).

Boston did take 3 out of 4 in their first meeting with the Bombers, but history suggests that the Beaneaters might have trouble keeping pace with a .700 win percentage unless they are willing to sell the farm to stay with New York.

The other Big Apple team is the puzzling Rippers. This team that has won 237 games over the last two seasons still has some big offensive figures including Barry Bonds and Jim Thome, who top the Classic League in home runs with 10 and 12 respectively. Overall, the Rippers are in the middle of the pack in runs scored, however. Pitching could be a problem. Rip City currently has a 4.95 team ERA and with Randy Johnson having a rare off season (6.35 ERA), it may be tough for the Rippers to compete for another division crown. Whether the “Mad Tradesman” wants to go for a wild card this year probably depends a lot on the Rippers’ prospects for 2004. The Big Unit is back in ’04 and the club has a very good roster on paper for the upcoming season, so we’ll have to see if the Rippers play for a championship in that season or use the Bombers’ model and try to win both years.

Fans in Brooklyn are getting restless. The Bums have never had a winning season and an 11-22 start and a very tough schedule has fans singing the blues again in 2003. There have been some bright spots --- Jerry Hairston is hitting .325 and Robin Ventura has had a hot start while Randy Wolf has a 2.87 ERA in six starts. But overall, Brooklyn appears to be headed towards another long year as changes in ownership have plagued this franchise (now on their fourth owner). There are hopes that Mike can begin to turn around this franchise which has had an unfortunate division pairing.

Predictions for the Metro? It could be a good race if Boston can hang with the Bombers, but I think it more likely that the Bombers pull away and win 110-115 while the Beaners will struggle to reach that lofty plateau. The Rippers probably have enough talent to make a run at a wild card if they want to make some deals but it’s probably more likely they will wait for 2004 to make their splash. Da Bums? Well, with the schedule they face and a history of rebuilds, it may be time to think about trading pieces for 2004 and beyond.

Guest Blog. Happenings in the Rust Belt

Matt has done a great write up on what is happening in the Rust Belt Division this year. While the division has been the stomping grounds for everyone in past years there are signs of life this year. Take a read. Thanks to Matt for this great write up. -Craig

About 35 games into the 2003 season, it’s time for this reporter to take a look around the league’s six divisions. Each division summary will be posted on the Millennium League Blog this weekend. Let’s begin with the Rust Belt.

Rust Belt Division:

After having the most difficult schedule in the MBL in the league’s inaugural season, the Detroit Buckeyes have waltzed into the playoffs the past two years. Last year, their competition in the division was so bad they were able to trade for two additional number one picks during the season, knowing that they would have an easy time making the postseason. Rather incredibly, the combined record of division rivals, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Philadelphia was 130-356. But the quest for a third straight division crown appeared, at least in the first 15 games of the year, to be a much tougher task.

New management in Cleveland has been quite strong. In fact, last year, despite the third worst record in baseball, Eric took home 15 total votes in the end of the year voting for GM of the year and finished fourth in that category. Amassing a boatload of #1 picks, the Rock N’ Rollers appear to be back as contenders, with an offense of future stars that include Vernon Wells, Carl Crawford, Mark Teixeira and Orlando Hudson among others. The question going into this year, however, was would it be too early for Cleveland to compete?

Early on it seemed like Cleveland might give Detroit a run for its money. They swept Cincinnati to start the season scoring 11, 8, 14, and 18 runs in each of the first four games. They then split with the Buckeyes and took 2 out of 3 against the Beaneaters. However, in recent weeks they have slipped a bit. They had a tough time in Washington, losing 5 out of 6 to the Tribe and Sens. Currently, they sit at 16-17, lodged solidly in second place but already 6 games behind Detroit. We will have to see if Cleveland is ready to aim for a wild card or even their second division title this year.

It will be a tall task to accomplish that feat given how strong the Buckeyes have looked. Detroit’s pitching has been top-notch. They have a 3.37 ERA overall, with some good young arms including Brad Penny and their former #1 pick, Josh Beckett. Penny is 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA and Beckett is 5-2 with a 2.67 mark. Longtime Buckeye Hideo Nomo also has a sub 3.00 ERA. Another former #1, Francisco Rodriguez joins Mike Remlinger and Paul Shuey in a strong bullpen.

The Buckeyes are no slouches at the plate either. They are currently third in the league in runs, with good speed, as always. A number of long-time franchise players like Jacque Jones, Luis Castillo, Placido Polanco and Derek Lee lead the way. All four of those stars have become household names in Detroit over the last four seasons. Raul Ibanez is also fourth in the league in batting at .360 and Scott Podseknik has already swiped 11 bags. Overall, however, this is a team effort. The Buckeyes do not litter the leaderboard with gaudy individual numbers, but as a unit, they are once again very tough.

The other two clubs in the division may have a long season ahead. Both GMs have admitted that 2003 is a rebuilding years. While Philadelphia’s fans may accept that given that they are still happy to have received a franchise last year when the Pittsburgh Crawfords moved to play in Shibe Park as the Firebirds, the Red Stocking faithful are getting restless after finishing with the league’s second worst record the last two years. While Cincinnati is improved at 12-21, their pitching appears to be in dire straits. They have the MBL’s worst ERA at 6.79 and rumor has it that their best pitcher Kyle Farnsworth is on the block. Cincy fans may have to think of brighter days ahead.

In Philadelphia, the Firebirds are also 12-21 and have clearly been more competitive this year. One can begin to imagine a strong club in the future especially when looking at Miguel Cabrera, the #1 pick overall in the 2003 draft. But Philadelphia will need to begin to amass some strong pieces around him if they are going to begin to compete in the Rust Belt.

Overall, my prediction is that Detroit is going to have a 100 plus win season and be a strong contender to reach their second World Series. Cleveland has very bright days ahead and should compete this year for a wild card. Philadelphia and Cincinnati should have high draft picks once again. If they can make those count and begin to assemble strong parts they could very well be strong players in 2005 and 2006 and beyond.

1st Pitching Power Rankings for 2003

I had a little time to get the pitching side done. Don't know how when I'll be able to get the next one done. I just know it won't be a weekly blog post like it was in 2002 unless my schedule frees up.

Rank	Team	Power Rank
1	San Diego Vipers	2.81
2	Boston Beaneaters	2.88
3	St. Louis Sliders	2.90
4	Houston Buffaloes	2.93
5	Washington Tribe	2.99
6	Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers	3.00
7	New York Bombers	3.02
8	Atlanta Stonecutters	3.12
9	Washington Senators	3.24
10	San Francisco Quakers	3.27
11	Minnesota Millers	3.27
12	Arizona Apaches	3.28
13	Oakland Osprey	3.30
14	Los Angeles Diablos	3.30
15	Detroit Buckeyes	3.37
16	Baltimore Stouts	3.39
17	Philadelphia Firebirds	3.40
18	Brooklyn Bums	3.47
19	Miami Panthers	3.50
20	New York Rippers	3.68
21	Seattle Lightning	3.75
22	Colorado Briar Jumpers	3.79
23	Cincinnati Red Stockings	4.07
24	Milwaukee Phantoms	4.16

1st 2003 Batting Power Rankings.

After a long break from doing these power rankings I have to re-teach myself how I did it in 2002. I didn't have time to do the pitching yet, but hopefully get to it sometime today, hopefully.

Since this is the 1st time in 2003 these are being done there is no comparison from the wee prior.

So, are you happy with your offense so far in 2003? Me personally was dissapointed early with ManRam, but he has has been showing signs of life. However, seems that 2002 Scott Rolen has rubbed off on Lance Berkman and Jason Kendall. Both currently hitting a whopping a.217.  Enough about me here is your ranking of offensive production.

Rank	Team	Power Ranking
1	Boston Beaneaters	.707
2	Houston Buffaloes	.705
3	New York Bombers	.700
4	Detroit Buckeyes	.689
5	Atlanta Stonecutters	.659
6	Milwaukee Phantoms	.645
7	Seattle Lightning	.642
8	Cincinnati Red Stockings	.642
9	Oakland Osprey	.635
10	Arizona Apaches	.634
11	Baltimore Stouts	.634
12	Washington Senators	.625
13	Minnesota Millers	.612
14	New York Rippers	.609
15	Cleveland Rock 'N Rollers	.600
16	Colorado Briar Jumpers	.594
17	Washington Tribe	.591
18	St. Louis Sliders	.563
19	San Diego Vipers	.553
20	Los Angeles Diablos	.537
21	San Francisco Quakers	.534
22	Brooklyn Bums	.508
23	Miami Panthers	.482
24	Philadelphia Firebirds	.468