4 years of Derek Jeter a retrospective

Now that we have 4 seasons of history to look at in the Millennium League (MBL) I thought it might be interesting to take a look at how one players real life stats compared with our Dynasty league. When I came up with this idea for a post I knew right away that I didn't want it to be a player that I have owned on my team, or that I really liked when said player played. I thought for a while and Derek Jeter's name kept popping in my head. For some reason for me Jeter never was one of those stand out players for me. Everyone seemed to love him, specially Yankee fans, but to me he was just a shortstop on the "Evil Empire" Yankees squad. We are not really here to debate whether or not Jeter was any good when he played. We are here to compare real life vs Dynasty life.

Mike C the creator of the crazy baseball simulator we all love to hate, and love again, prides his game to be one of the most realistic baseball games on the market. He goes through each player stats and puts outcomes based on dice rolls 0-999. He has done this for many years, and we always wonder if he got it right when our big bopper clutch player comes to the plate only to strikeout. When asked Mike and any other stat head with say "meh, small sample, it happens."

Real Life	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2000	148	593	119	201	31	4	15	73	68	99	22	4	0.339	0.416	0.481

Dyansty	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2000	160	681	109	220	34	6	15	80	75	134	18	6	0.323	0.394	0.457

2000 season Dynasty's 1st year. Boy if I only knew what I knew now. Anyway, Jeter was taken #9 in the first round of the 2000 draft by the Minnesota Millers. Derek had more Runs, and more stolen bases in real life than his Dynasty counterpart. However, Jeter played 12 more games in Dynasty than real life, and those 12 games show up in his numbers in Dynasty. AB's (+88), hits(+10), doubles(+3), triples(+2), RBI's(+7), walks(+7), and strikeouts(+35).  While Jeters numbers for the most part went up, he became a less efficient card for Walt. His AVG was down, OBP down, and SLG down. I would have to say to have gotten the most out of Jeter that year Walt should have maybe sat Jeter more than playing in 160 games. I'm not crying for Walt as Jeter had a fine year in the MBL, I'm just pointing out that due to his increased usage his numbers fell. I'm thinking Jeter must of had some small injury that year in real life hence the "C" injury rating on his card.

Conclusion: UNDER PREFORM CARD

2001

Real Life	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2001	150	614	110	191	35	3	21	74	56	99	27	3	0.311	0.377	0.480

Dyansty	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2001	159	656	106	200	48	7	16	75	58	137	26	9	0.305	0.371	0.473

2001 our second season. Walt got his wish and got to draft the mighty Albert Poljos for his squad with the number one pick overall. As the 2001 season got under way Jeter was having a horrible start only hitting .169 in 21 games. That was enough for Walt to pull the trigger and send Jetter packing to NY and the Bombers. Jetter played 84 games for the Bombers when "Crazy Trading" Larry sent him to the land of misfit toys Milwaukee. Where Jeter still resides to this day. Jeter had more AB's, Hits, Doubles, Triples, RBI's, Walks, and Strikeouts in Dynasty than in real life. This time Jeter only had 9 more games played in Dynasty than in real life. However, Jeter's card did not live up to expectations again it the AVG, OBP, and SLG categories. Only 2 more walks in Dynasty than real life (hurt the OBP), and looking at how many more doubles he had in Dynasty I thought for sure his SLG would have been greater in Dynasty. Again all 3 stats were worse than his card.

Conclusion: UNDER PREFORMING CARD

Real Life	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2002	157	644	124	191	26	0	18	75	73	114	32	3	0.297	0.373	0.421

Dyansty	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2002	161	662	112	173	23	0	11	53	72	137	43	14	0.261	0.339	0.346

2002: Things were not good for Jeter in Milwaukee in 2002. Not much on the roster at that time could him him and his numbers. However, this is where Dynasty has it's doubters. While his numbers were down across the board his AVG and OBP really stand out to me. Those are not numbers depending on who is on base or who is behind them in the order. Jeters average plummeted to .261 from real life number of .297. That is a big drop! He also struckout a heck of a lot more with 137 K's on the year. Looking at the card and seeing the 2002 season results Mike C must have screwed up this card, bad.

Conclusion: WAY UNDER PREFORMING CARD

Real Life	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2003	119	482	87	156	25	3	10	52	43	88	11	5	0.324	0.393	0.450

Dyansty	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
2003	142	603	109	184	31	4	14	53	43	137	12	6	0.305	0.366	0.439

On to the last year of 2003.

This is another year where Jeter played in a lot more games in Dynasty than in real life (142-119). So, all his individual numbers may look higher than real life, but Jeter was worse in the averages department. What did I really learn about do this exercise? Jeter is a strikeout monster. and in Dynasty that shows up all the time. Jeter's average while over .300 for the Dynasty league was down almost 20 points from real life, also his OBP was down almost 30 points. 

Conclusion: ANOTHER UNDER PERFORMING CARD   

While some of Jeters individual numbers were close to the real life numbers that Jeter put up, his averages were way off and down. When I look at my team the Stonecutters I get impatient. What have you done for me lately syndrome. I was hoping by doing this post it would teach me to be more patient when evaluating players. Now it just makes me think that long time players with good stats through out their career are going to under preform. It was my case with Scott Rolen, now Jason Kendall, and a few others. If I can get the player to perform close to their real life numbers I'm a happy man. It's get frustrating when they don't produce those number over a season.  

Let me know over email or in the comments below what players you feel fit in this situation for your team or you've noticed on someones team.  

  

Guest Blog: Divisional Write ups part 1

Matt continues his write ups for all the divisions in this piece. Here is the Southeast and Metro division. I hope Matt is right about the Southeast :) -Craig

Southeast Division:

Last year, the Southeast Division was one of the most competitive divisions in the MBL, with the two strong Washington clubs ending the year dead-even at 96-66. And there were many league members who felt that it was actually the third place finisher, the Atlanta Stoencutters, who had the best team on paper. Atlanta finished at 85-77 but had a run differential that suggested they should have topped at least 90 wins.

In any case, all three teams appear to be back strong in ’03 even as Miami continues their lengthy rebuild following a World Series appearance in 2000. So looking at Atlanta and their two capital rivals, which team is likely to take the crown? Currently, the Tribe are 19-11, Atlanta is 19-14 and the Senators are at 18-15. In head-to-head matchups, Atlanta split with both Washington clubs, while the Senators took 3 of 4 against the Tribe. The Senators, however, have struggled more against the Metro Division, losing two out of three to Boston and both New York clubs. The Tribe have had some odd series. Rather incredibly, they swept the mighty New York Bombers and then lost all three to struggling Cincinnati. They also swept Brooklyn and Cleveland and took two out of three in Detroit. Corky received four first place votes for manager of the year last season and he appears to have his club playing above their heads again this season.

Looking at run differential (this reporter’s favorite predicting tool), smart money may be on Atlanta. They have a +27 run differential, compared to the Tribe’s +10 and the Senators’ -8. Atlanta also has the weakest record in one-run contests, a statistic that has a tendency to balance out (although it should be noted that it never did for the Stonecutters last year).

The Stonecutters appear to have the strongest offense in the division, currently in the middle of the pack league-wide in runs scored. Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting .341 while Manny Ramirez (who seems to be perpetually involved in trade rumors) has 6 home runs and 24 RBI in the young season. Up the middle, Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera are both strong hitters and one would expect Scott Rolen and Lance Berkman to hit eventually.

Hitting may be a concern for the two Washington teams. The Tribe are fourth from the bottom in runs scored and the Senators are also in the bottom quarter. The Senators have been led by catcher Brad Fullmer, who is batting .370 while Jeff Bagwell has 7 bombs for the Tribe. But both teams may need to get offensive help to stay with Atlanta.

On the mound, relief pitching always reigns supreme for the Tribe. Brenden Donnelly and Shawn Chacon may prove to be the new Scott Stewart-ish relievers for Corky this year, and Mariano Rivera closes things out at the end. Somehow three starters have managed to start 28 of the Tribe’s 30 games this year on route to a 3.45 team ERA. There is some sense that Corky is using smoke and mirrors to have gotten his club to 19-11 start. But since Washington has moved from Tampa Bay to begin the 2001 season, they have found nothing but success.

The Senators have a strong pitching core that could make them contenders, especially if they can add a bat or two. Barry Zito is 6-1 and Zach Day is 3-1 with a sub 3.00 ERA. If they can get Derek Lowe going (he currently has a 6.23 ERA) and get strong years from rookie Rich Harden and former #1 pick, Brian Lawrence, the Sens should play a role.

Overall, my prediction is that Atlanta starts to pull away with this division as lady luck begins to favor the Cutters more. The Tribe will likely hang around, however, and get to 90 wins. The Senators also have a lot of talent and should also be in that range. I could see both Washington clubs competing with Cleveland for the second wild card, although as always, everything will depend on what moves the GMs make between now and the deadline.

Metro Division:

Continuing our look around the MBL in these early days of the 2003 season, let’s take a look at the Metro Division. Last year, was a rather incredible year for this group of clubs. The New York Rippers finished in first place, won 122 games (an all-time record) while Boston won 110 games, the second most in the MBL. The team with the third most wins also hailed from the Metro, the 109 win New York Bombers, who took the championship over Minnesota in six games.

For the Bombers, who were originally all-in for ’03, they are now in the enviable position of having already won a championship in 2002 while playing for 2003. There is a lot of evidence that they may have the league’s best team again this year. The Bombers have already scored 240 runs, 30 more than any other team. And their pitching is nearly as good. They have a 3.45 team ERA, with a whole host of top-notch relievers (who have a combined 3.28 ERA) including Curt Leskanic, Rheal Cormier, Rod Beck and Rafael Soriano. Just like last season, those relievers are going to prove to be very tough in the playoffs.

Still, that said, they are second place, a game back of first-place Boston, who comes in with the league’s best record at 21-9. Looking for their fourth consecutive 100-win season, the Beaneaters would also like to do something they have not done much of --- win when it counts. Easily nabbing the wild card but finishing well back of the Rippers the last two years, one could easily imagine a similar scenario this year against another New York club.

The Beaneaters have hit this year. Boston again has a balanced attack featuring lefty sluggers who have been hitting a lot of balls onto Bedford Avenue behind Ebbets Field. Geoff Jenkins and Jason Giambi each have 7 bombs apiece while Eric Chavez has 21 RBI and Larry Walker has 18 RBI. Boston’s management appears to be a bit more aggressive this year to win now, acquiring Steve Finley and Russ Ortiz from Minnesota for a number one pick last week. Boston has also led the league so far in pitching. They currently have a 3.03 team ERA led by starters Tim Hudson and Scott Shields and three strong relievers out of the pen, Latroy Hawkins, Paul Quantrill and Octavio Dotel (although Dotel has struggled early on).

Boston did take 3 out of 4 in their first meeting with the Bombers, but history suggests that the Beaneaters might have trouble keeping pace with a .700 win percentage unless they are willing to sell the farm to stay with New York.

The other Big Apple team is the puzzling Rippers. This team that has won 237 games over the last two seasons still has some big offensive figures including Barry Bonds and Jim Thome, who top the Classic League in home runs with 10 and 12 respectively. Overall, the Rippers are in the middle of the pack in runs scored, however. Pitching could be a problem. Rip City currently has a 4.95 team ERA and with Randy Johnson having a rare off season (6.35 ERA), it may be tough for the Rippers to compete for another division crown. Whether the “Mad Tradesman” wants to go for a wild card this year probably depends a lot on the Rippers’ prospects for 2004. The Big Unit is back in ’04 and the club has a very good roster on paper for the upcoming season, so we’ll have to see if the Rippers play for a championship in that season or use the Bombers’ model and try to win both years.

Fans in Brooklyn are getting restless. The Bums have never had a winning season and an 11-22 start and a very tough schedule has fans singing the blues again in 2003. There have been some bright spots --- Jerry Hairston is hitting .325 and Robin Ventura has had a hot start while Randy Wolf has a 2.87 ERA in six starts. But overall, Brooklyn appears to be headed towards another long year as changes in ownership have plagued this franchise (now on their fourth owner). There are hopes that Mike can begin to turn around this franchise which has had an unfortunate division pairing.

Predictions for the Metro? It could be a good race if Boston can hang with the Bombers, but I think it more likely that the Bombers pull away and win 110-115 while the Beaners will struggle to reach that lofty plateau. The Rippers probably have enough talent to make a run at a wild card if they want to make some deals but it’s probably more likely they will wait for 2004 to make their splash. Da Bums? Well, with the schedule they face and a history of rebuilds, it may be time to think about trading pieces for 2004 and beyond.

Revisionist History: Replaying Game 1 of the Bombers vs Rippers Playoff game

Hey all,

There are times in this game where I think that the computer is "throwing" the game for the other team. I thought I would try and prove right or wrong this theory that bothers most of us. I decided to get out my 2002 cards and replay the League Divisional Series between the New York Bombers and the New York Rippers. These two teams both had over 100 wins for the season, however the Bombers dominated the series winning it 4 games to 1. Also to mention that the Rippers had the best overall regular season record (122-40) in the Millennium league. In game one of the series played by our 2 owners (Larry, and Billy) the Bombers won the game 6-1 and chased Randy Johnson after 5 innings. Lets take a look on what happens when I play with the cards and charts. I am using the starting lineups and starting pitchers that our owners used. I am trying to replicate the game as much as possible. However, I only have ball park charts through 1997, so I'm afraid that the Rippers will be playing in old Tiger Stadium. Bummer I know. Sorry.  Anyway, lets see what happens.

Top of the 1st inning:
Austin Kearns: Strikeout
K. Garcia: Grounds out to 2b Boone.
Jeremy Giambi: Strikeout
Randy Johnson rolls through the top of the order

Middle of 1st:
Bobby Abreu: 2 base error on the CF Milton Bradley. Abreu on second.
Omar Vizquel: Walks
Barry Bonds: Double off the wall, all score. Rippers up 2-0
Vlad Guerrero: High Fly out to CF, runner holds
Jim Thome: Pop out to 1B
Bret Boone: Ground out to SS, 3 outs

Top of 2nd:
Nomar: Hard Ground out to SS
Gary Bennett: Ground out to C
Corey Koskie: Strikout

Middle of 2nd:
David Bell: Ground out to SS
Sandy Alomar: base hit to left field
Randy Johnson: Goes for the sac bunt, but on a tough play against a C+ range pitcher gets a base hit.
Abreu: Fly out to Left
Vizquel: Strikeout

Top of 3:
Mark Ellis: Walk
Rodrigo Lopez: Sac bunt, runners moves to 2nd, batter out.
Milton Bradley: Hits a 385 ft bomb to left center Score 2-2.
Kearns: Strikeout
Garcia: Base hit to right field
Giambi: Fouls out to the catcher.

Middle of 3:
Bonds: Strikeout
Vlad: Grounds out to SS
Thome: Strokes a triple into the CF gap.
Boone: Back to back triples! Thome scores Rippers up 3-2
Bell: Hits a line drive base hit to center Rippers up 4-2
Alomar: Walks. Man on 1st and 2nd 
Johnson: Strikeout

Top of 4:
Nomar: Hard ground out to 3rd
Bennett: Drills one down the line, and Bonds makes a Great catch!
Koskie: Strikeout

Middle of 4:
Abreu: Base hit to right
Vizquel: Strikeout
Bonds: Strikeout
Vlad: Walk
Thome: Grounds out to short

Top of 5:
Ellis: Pop out to 3rd
Lopez: Grounds out on a bang-bang play to SS.
Bradley: Strikeout

Middle of 5:
Boone: Lines out to first. Great range play by Giambi
Bell: Grounds out to third
Alomar: Hits a double down the line
Johnson: Strikeout- Was thinking of pulling RJ out here however game is still close and except 1 mistake he's pitching well. Only faced 18 hitters so far.

Top of 6:
Warming up Chris Hammond for the Bombers
Kearns: Walk
Garcia: Hits a ball to Thome, and he bobbles it! Runner to 3rd and 1st
Giambi: Jeremy rolled a Deep Drive however RJ has the ON Situation. Foul out to C.
Nomar: Hits a line drive to RF, and gets past Vlad! Kearns scores, Garcia scores! Nomar to 3rd! Score 4-4
Bennett: Single to left! Nomar scores from 3rd. Score 5-4 Bombers
Rippers get Orlando Herandez up in the pen.
Koskie: Strikeout
Ellis: Strikeout

Middle of 6:
Bombers bring in  Chris Hammond
Rippers put up Orlando Herandez in the pen
Rippers subsitute Bobby Abreu for Danny Bautista
Bautista: Ground out to 3rd
Vizquel: Fly out to CF
Bonds: HOME RUN! Score 5-5
Vlad: Ground out to 3B

Top of 7
Now pitching for the Rippers Orlando Hernandez
Hammond: Ground out to 2B
Bombers bring in Timo Perez for Milton Bradley
Perez: Ground out to 2B
Kearns: Ground out to SS

Middle of 7:
Thome: Strikeout
Boone: Fly out to CF
Rippers warming up Arthur Rhodes 
Bell: Ground out SS

Top of 8:
Rippers bring in Rhodes
Garcia: Walk
Giambi: Base hit
Nomar: Base hit
Rippers put up Trevor Hoffman in the pen
Bennett:Strikeout
Koskie: Pop up to 1B
Bombers have Remlinger and Dotel in the pen
Ellis: Strikeout. Rhodes got really lucky in this inning.

Middle of 8:
Bombers bring in O Dotel
Alomar: Strikeout
Rippers bring in Q. McCracken to pinch hit for Rhodes
McCracken: Strikeout
Rippers warming up T. Hoffman
Bautista: Ground out to 2B

Top of 9:
Durazo: Strikeout
Perez: Double down the right field line
Kearns: Ground out to third, bang-bang play at 1st, OUT! runner moves to 3rd
Garcia: Bat hit! Runner on 3rd scores  Bombers 6-5!
Robb Nen warming up in the pen for the Bombers
Giambi: Strikeout

Bottom of 9 Last chance for the Rippers
Bombers bring in Robb Nen
Vizquel:  Base hit!
Bonds: Intentionally walked
Vlad: Fly out to LF
Thome: Base hit to RF! Vizquel scores, Bonds going to 3rd...SAFE!! TIED GAME 6-6!
Boone: BASE HIT to left Bonds scores! Rippers win on a walk off hit 7-6!!

Wow! That was quite a game. It took me most of the afternoon to play it as the results come out I typed them in. Computer is much faster. Anyway, the game was a lot closer than the real 1st game of the series between the Rippers and the Bombers. If I have this much time again I will try and play the rest of the series. 

I was surprised that Randy Johnson couldn't go longer, as he got in trouble. Rippers bats showed up for this game where they were pretty quiet in the series against the Bombers. Bombers took advantage of a error and a walk in the 6th.

I know there would have been different decisions made by both teams. I haven't played the cards in quite some time so this took me a lot longer that I thought it would. I hope you guys enjoyed the replay it was fun to watch the outcome in my position. 

Help Wanted

I though I would use this space and list the teams that are looking to make trades and what they need and what they have.

Baltimore,
Need: A big bat, also would like 2003 picks for 2004 picks.
Has: 2004 1st round pick to give up.

Oakland,
Need: high 2003 pick
Has: Rafael Palmeiro

Boston,
Need: A starting pitcher
Has: 1st round 2003 pick

NY Bombers,
Need: more 2nd round picks
Has: Jason Giambi, Tim Salmon,  Tim Wakefield

Atlanta,
Need: starting pitcher
Has: Jay Payton

Colorado,
Need: draft picks
Has: Sammy Sosa

I will update as needed, so be sure to check back often.