Sunday, February 21, 2016

The Autopsy of the 2002 Atlanta Stonecutters

I have completed the 2002 MBL season with a record of 85-77. Sure it's a winning record, any Brewer fan would be proud of the season. However, this is the Atlanta Stonecutters! At the beginning of the 2002 season the front office was really shooting high for the 2003 season. With a couple of trades the front office made the move to win the Southwest Division. Additions of Mark Prior, Manny Ramirez, Troy Percival, and Terry Adams the thought was it was enough to win the divison and move deep into the playoffs. Well, that didn't happen. Washington teams of the Tribe and the Senators took the division to the wire and have to play a 1 game playoff while Atlanta finishes the season 11 games out of first place.

Lets take a look and see what went wrong on this team. We will start with the position players. With players like Jose Vidro, Scott Rolen, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman one would think there would be enough fire power in the line up to put up big numbers, and they kinda did with a run differential of +136.  The following chart is a power ranking chart similar to the one I run for the league, this one takes into effect strikeouts.

NamePower Ranking %OPSReal OPSOPS Difference
Gary Bennett.9191.0820.6680.414
Manny Ramirez.8131.1161.0970.019
Omar Infante.7830.8310.7770.054
Nomar Garciaparra.7740.8890.880.009
Jose Vidro.7040.8460.868-0.022
Lance Berkman.6720.850.982-0.132
Einar Diaz.6670.6910.5420.149
Orlando Cabrera.6000.7030.7010.002
Jay Payton.5770.7560.838-0.082
Jason Kendall.5650.7030.706-0.003
Scott Rolen.5500.7240.915-0.191
Gabe Kapler.5410.7280.6880.04
Doug Mientkiewicz.5310.6910.843-0.152
Ben Grieve.4370.6710.716-0.045
Chris Gomez.1760.4010.633-0.232

Power Ranking % is closer to the number 1 you are the better you were for the team as a whole. I also compared the players real OPS number (OBP + SLG) to what they produced in the 2002 season for me. As you can see Gary Bennett was a stud according to the numbers, however Gary was not with us the entire season, only 25 games, and he only hit vs lefty pitchers as he crushed them in the real 2002 season. Manny lived up to the hype after he came over in a trade batting a better OPS. Manny did slide a bit toward the finish line and dropped his batting average from .410 at one point down to .386. Still winning the batting title but batting .400 would have been nice. Plus  going 0-4 in the last game of the season against a lefty really put the cherry on top of the season.

Nomar was traded mid season so he's incomplete. Jose Vidro was a real headache for us during the first part of the season, he however found his swing and bounced back a bit. Yeah, he didn't out perform his real OPS but he came close. 

Now for Mr. Lance Berkman. 
G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
HBP
SH
SF
SB
CS
GDP
BA
OBP
SLG
Totals
162
609
99
162
34
3
31
102
93
115
5
0
4
5
4
7
.266
.366
.484

Mr. Iron man for the team playing in all 162 games. Under preformed in almost every offensive category compared to his real 2002 season.
Batting average Real 2002: .292, MBL 2002 .266.
Home runs: Real 2002: 42, MBL: 31
RBI: Real 2002: 128 MBL 102
OBP: Real .405 MBL: .366
SLG: Real .578 MBL: .484

I would like to blame County Stadium for the reduction in Home Runs, but I'm not going to. OBP should not take a huge hit like it did just because of the stadium a player plays in.

Most disappointing player on the roster is... Scott Rolen. You might have seen my post a month of two ago showing how horrible Scott has been in 2002.
Here are Scott's stats in 114 games:
GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOHBPSHSFSBCSGDPBAOBPSLG
Totals114424649818715674482160114200.2310.3260.413

Here is what Scott finished the 2002 season with:
         G
  AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
HBP
SH
SF
SB
CS
GDP
 BA 
OBP 
SLG
Totals
162
600
95
127
22
10
24
91
76
115
23
0
2
3
4
23
.212
.322
.402

Yep, he got even worse after I wrote the blog post. Worse avg, OBP, and SLG. **head desk**

Finally, Doug Mientkiewicz of DM from here on out. While not known for his bat in 2002 he was still solid with a AVG in the .260 range and a little pop. But instead DM gave me this:

G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
HBP
SH
SF
SB
CS
GDP
BA
OBP
SLG
Totals
162
593
72
137
34
3
11
78
87
107
9
0
3
2
3
9
.231
.337
.354

One saving grace for Rolen and DM is that they were both A+ in rage for their positions in 02. They saved us a lot of hits down the line cause of their defense. However, I don't think it really made up for the lack of stick they had in 02 for us.

For a team full of clutch hitters of Vidro, Berkman, Manny, Rolen, DM there were not a lot of clutch hits.

In conclusion, the reason the Stonecutters fell in 2002 was the under performace of 3 key players. If those 3 came close to performing like there card Atlanta would be getting ready to play in the playoffs. 

Here is the pitching chart I made. Basically, while Prior was our 2nd best pitcher according to my chart he went 5-11 for us. That is not going to cut it. I only had one pitcher who had over 10 wins and that was Maddux going 22-6.

GamesPower RankingERAReal ERADifferenceWHIPReal WHIPDifference
Troy Percival430.082.311.92-0.390.851.1180.268
Mark Prior260.723.623.32-0.31.081.1660.086
Armando Almanza340.813.754.340.591.281.2920.012
Antonio Alfonseca190.822.3141.691.161.4660.306
Greg Maddux370.902.382.620.240.981.1990.219
Dave Veres591.113.123.480.361.241.2820.042
Jeff Nelson561.263.863.940.081.611.38-0.23
Terry Adams211.313.294.351.061.311.390.08
Kevin Brown51.545.944.81-1.131.261.4290.169
Andy Pettitte91.563.453.27-0.181.431.307-0.123
Ron Villone241.623.924.130.211.411.303-0.107
Jaime Cerda211.744.012.45-1.561.51.403-0.097
Chad Paronto171.855.314.04-1.271.11.2620.162
Pete Walker281.854.554.36-0.191.311.3970.087
Rick Bauer291.884.883.98-0.91.441.434-0.006
Shane Reynolds211.984.234.860.631.491.432-0.058
Pete Munro162.526.223.57-2.651.591.388-0.202
Aaron Harang142.595.684.83-0.851.81.57-0.23
Ben Sheets33.207.824.15-3.672.211.417-0.793


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