Craig: This is awesome, another guest blog post, this time from our fearless leader Matt. Thank you again to Steve for breaking the ice, and now Matt for this insightful post. If you have an idea for a post type it out and email it me, I would love to post it here. I really think these posts bring a lot to our league. Without further ado, here's Matt...
Hi everyone,
Steve’s project in which he looked back at Oakland’s 2000 Inaugural Draft inspired me to do the same. I couldn’t even remember what order many of the Beaneaters players were picked in, so it was fun to relive this draft two years later and see how my picks did. Not sure if others will have much interest but at least it was fun for me to think back and explore how the current team was assembled.
Draft Strategy:
My draft strategy, if there was one at all, was to consider the Steroid Era. It seemed at the time that it was likely that big hitting first baseman and corner outfielders would be easy to find. Having been trained in Moneyball thinking, I wasn’t interested much in defense and speed except if it came with other qualities. It seemed likely that starting pitching would be at a premium so my thought was to pick 3 or 4 long-term starting pitchers to assemble the team around and then add some good Moneyball type hitters to get runs across the plate.
Unfortunately, my plans were thrown off a bit by the lefty bias in Dynasty that I’m sure we now all know too well. I ended up choosing three lefty starters in the early rounds not knowing that the deck was a bit stacked against them, but in the end, it seemed to work out ok for the Boston franchise as we were able to deal two of them for key pieces in the 02-05 seasons.
The other part of my strategy was to draft with both the 2000 season and future years in mind. I wanted to assemble a team for the long haul but I was hoping to win at least 90 games in year one. It seemed smart to do what Steve and Walt and Thomas and others did and suffer through a tough first year to build a great team for the future. But honestly, I didn’t even know if our league would last more than a year and I couldn’t bear to sit through a lot of losing. So with that I went into the 2000 Draft:
Round One:
Boston was chosen to draft 23 out of 24. There was a lot of talk after this initial lottery that the Bombers and Brooklyn and other teams near the top had too much of advantage in being able to take ARod and the Big Unit and the other premier players. I was never worried about this though. My strategy was to build a balanced club and thus, having pick 23 and 25 (the first year was a snake draft) rather than say #1 and #48 seemed fine to me. At 23, I looked to take the best starting pitcher available, preferably someone who could help in 2000 but who would be good for many years. Roger Clemens was taken at #17 and interestingly the next 5 picks were all hitters (including St. Louis’ odd choice of the F durability and aging Mark McGwire at 22). That left Tim Hudson on the board at 23 and so he became the first Beaneater. Hudson did go 14-8 with a 4.21 ERA (his +3 hold rating was helped when I acquired Eli Marrero for a 5th rounder from Seattle with his -3 arm) in 2000 and won the Cy Young at 21-5, 2.83 ERA in 2001. He has an ERA in the 3.00s in 2002 and I’m hoping for a big year from him in 2003. Overall, I’ve been pretty satisfied with Huddy as our #1.
Round Two:
The Senators had back to back picks at the turn and with #25 took Barry Zito, who I had penciled in as Beaneater #2. Without Zito on the board, we went with half-of-famer Tom Glavine as the next best starting pitcher available. This pick I regret deeply. Al Leiter and Bartolo Colon went soon after and these picks or perhaps Javier Vasquez (who went to Oakland) would have been wiser. Glavine was left-handed and had a dreadful year as Boston’s ace in 2000 pitching in Fenway. He ended with the odd record of 17-15 in year one with an ERA just under 5.00, overall a disappointment. In 2001, his ERA was over 5.00 pitching in old Yankee Stadium. Anxious to deal off my southpaw starters, I traded him to Houston in the ’01 offseason for Carlos Guillen and a #5 pick. I felt I had enough pitching for ’02 and sure enough Glavine has underperformed again. He had an ERA in the 2.00s in 2002 but in the Millennium League he has pitched for three teams and has a 4.38 ERA. Hopefully all’s well that end’s well for Boston. Guillen has a monster ’04 season coming and I feel he could win a Classic MVP as a big-hitting shortstop with some other prime years to follow.
Round Three:
As the draft came back around to us at the bottom of Round 3 and top of Round 4, the plan was to pick one big bat and then another starting pitcher. We took Moises Alou as the third pick. Alou’s defense was pretty dreadful but he had big seasons in 2000 and 2001 and then some more down the line. At the time, I had not devised a strategy of picking left-handed bats and Alou seemed the best of the power-hitters available. Plus if we were going to compete in 2000, we needed a player with a big year. Looking back I think it was a decent choice. Moises hit .374-41-138 in 2000 and won the Classic League MVP, although he was dreadful in a playoff loss to Miami. He had another strong year in ’01. This past year, riding the pine, I dealt him to San Diego for a #2 and #4 pick. He was a hard guy to trade as no player symbolized the Beaners more than Moises but hopefully he can help the Vipers when he has a big year in 04 and again in 05. I’m hoping to use the picks for pitching.
Round Four:
Two picks later we again looked for a strong pitcher. Again not knowing of a lefty bias, Jamie Moyer seemed like a good pick. I liked his reverse splits and while he was poor in 2000, he had strong years in 01, 02 and 03. He has indeed performed well in 2002, currently 12-3 with a 2.48 ERA and an outside shot at a Cy Young. Not bad for a lefty. Livan Hernandez, Kerry Wood, Ryan Dempster are all guys who went shortly after them. Maybe Wood could have been the better choice but I do like Moyer’s longevity.
Round Five:
As the draft came back to Boston, I needed another big hitter and at the time Raffy Palmeiro seemed a good choice. However, as the season started and I acquired Ryan Klesko in that famously controversial trade with the Sliders, it freed up Palmeiro to be dealt. I sent him to Toronto along with third baseman Herbert Perry (round 9) for Tony Graffanino and Eric Chavez. This deal, only the second I ever made, is still probably the biggest in Beaner history. I am always too scared to trade big name players and I thought long and hard about this one. Overall, I’m happy I did it. Chavez is a good Dynasty player. He plays a position that is hard to find (3B) and rakes against righties. I have been able to find guys to fill in against lefties and play third base, letting Chavez to usually slug over .500 against righties and bring A range defense. Palmeiro is a slugger but Chavez also has more years and should be a vital part of Boston’s team until ’06 or ’07.
Round Six:
Back for more pitching I unknowingly took another southpaw in Round 6, Jarrod Washburn. With an F durability in 2000 and a long career ahead of him, I was hoping I might sneak him through to a good year 2000 and then have him through the years. It didn’t work out as he went down for the season in an early season game in 2000 against Minnesota but he was OK in 2001. We were able to acquire Oslvado Fernandez as his replacement in 2000 from Houston for a 3rd round pick. Osvaldo pitched very well as a #3 starter and then we dealt him at the break to Cincinnati for a #1 pick (who eventually became Ben Sheets). Meanwhile, Washburn pitched for Boston in 2001 and then was dealt to Baltimore in a big deal at the end of the season: Jarrod and a 3rd and 4th rounder for Larry Walker. That deal rivaled the Chavez-Palmeiro deal for the biggest in our history and we will have to see how it plays out. Walker is having a big year in 2001 for us but Washburn has also pitched pretty well for the Stouts and has a longer career than Walker.
Round Seven:
The Geoff Jenkins pick in the seventh may have been our best pick of the draft. Here is a guy who played most of his career in Milwaukee and was never seen as a superstar. Like Brian Giles of the Pirates, I felt like he was underrated and a bit of a steal in the 7th. In 2000, he hit .301 with 33 homers and 125 RBI plus good defense, earning him a spot on the All-Star team. He does strike out a ton and doesn’t hit lefties well but these problems, especially the latter, don’t seem like major subtractions to me. In 01 and 02, he is an injury prone reserve (although we have avoided getting him hurt) but he should come back with monster seasons in 03 and 04 and another good one in 05.
Round Eight:
Rick Reed completed the 5 man rotation for year one and I hoped he would give us reasonable pitching for a few years. As it turned out, we dealt him at the deadline in 2000 to Baltimore for Ricky Gutierrez, a #4 pick in 2001 and a #2 pick in 2002. This seemed reasonable at the time and still does. Gutierrez was our starting shortstop for most of 01 and then dealt at the deadline for a #3 pick to Pittsburgh (the pick was then used to acquire Larry Walker). Ironically, Reed has recently come back to Boston in a trade for Todd Zeile with Arizona. He gives up a ton of home runs to lefties in ’02 but playing in cavernous Griffith Stadium I figured we could work our way around this liability. This allowed us to move Ryan Franklin to Minnesota along with a pick to get Paul Quantrill, our closer in ’03.
Round Nine:
Here I was worried we’d be stuck without a third baseman in ’00 and rather unwisely took Herbert Perry, a mediocre player with a short future. We were probably fortunate to include him in the deal to get Chavez with Toronto. Not a good pick though as much better players Jacque Jones, Arthur Rhodes and others were available.
Round Ten:
Needing a second baseman for 2000, we took Jerry Hairston, another unfortunate pick. Hairston was a reasonable second baseman in 00, hitting .257 with a .350 OBP but we could have looked toward the future here. In these middle rounds it was hard to try to complete in 2000 while also making strong picks. I think we did better though in trading Hairston and Jay Payton (later acquired in the Bob Wickman deal with the Rippers) for Latroy Hawkins who is probably our most valuable pitcher on the 2002 squad.
Round Eleven:
This pick for Adrian Brown worked out nicely. I had never heard of the Pirate centerfielder, but he was a strong one year player in 2000, hit and fielded very well for us and then was available to deal at the deadline to Baltimore for their #2 pick. Overall, a good conversion.
Round Twelve:
I took another one year player at #12, again looking toward the immediate future, choosing Donnie Wall, who became the Beaners superstar reliever. He ended up 17-7 in 2000 and finished third in the Cy Young balloting. Again, it might have been wiser to play for the future here as Wall was not a keeper at the end of ’00 but at least we got our money’s worth as he was the team’s most important pitcher in the first campaign.
Round Thirteen and Fourteen:
Needing bullpen help for 2000, Boston took Rich Garces and Eddie Guardado. Neither of these rather rotund relievers ever pitched particularly well in Boston. Garces would end his career as a Beaneater in 01 and Guardado was dealt to Detroit after the 2000 season for a pick that would be used for Danys Baez. While Baez never reached his potential with Boston, he was an important part of the 01 season and was eventually dealt to Oakland for Matt Stairs, a big part of our plans for ’03.
Round Fifteen and Sixteen:
Bob Wickman added to Boston’s 2000 bullpen. He was dealt mid-season to the Rippers for Turk Wendall and Jay Payton. Tough deal to analyze. On the one hand Wickman went on in 2001 to have the greatest Millennium season for a reliever yet recorded (at least in terms of saves, 48). On the other hand, it was nice to close for that Ripper ballclub! Wendall was dealt to Arizona for a #3 pick (I believe it was) and Payton helped get Hawkins so it wasn’t all bad.
In Round 16, we took the oddest player to ever wear a Beaner uniform. Mitch Meluskey, a one year catcher, who could really hit but also had dreadful defense. I believe he had F range and was an F handling pitchers. He also had a temper and a +1 arm. Overall, he seemed worth it though. Teaming with Sandy Alomar, he played only vs. righties and hit .336 with 14 homers and 60 RBI in 265 at bats to finish second in Rookie of the Year balloting.
Rounds 17-20
In Round 17, we finally took a shortstop, Felix Martinez, a smooth fielding, weak hitting player that we dealt mid-year to Arizona for a #2 pick as Deivi Cruz seemed good enough despite weak range to take over the position. Filling in gaps we took Sandy Alomar to hit against lefties at the catcher spot platooning with Meluskey in year one and Deivi Cruz who raked lefties and survived righties at SS. The 20th pick went for Cliff Pollitte, an odd player who helped a bit as a spot starter in 2000, is having a good year in the pen in 2002 and will probably stick around as a keeper until his big closer year in 05.
Rounds 21-30
Filling in some gaps, some of the players drafted late became helpful in trades. Vaughn, taken in the 23rd, was famously was dealt for Ryan Klesko, one of our most important players from ’00-’05. Jason McDonald, taken in the 22nd was a great one-side player, who had a .426 OBP with a -2 arm in centerfield and was dealt to Arizona at the deadline for a 5th rounder. Mike Stanton taken in the 21st was also dealt to Arizona as part of a package that brought Jose Hernandez to Boston. Homer Bush, taken in the 26th was traded to Minnesota during the 01 draft along with a pick for Todd Walker, a valuable starting second baseman.
Overall, it was a mixed draft. Some good picks that helped set Boston off to three 100 win seasons, but also some poor picks, a few of whom were able to be salvaged in trades. In any case, fun for me to look back at how it all worked out.
