Western Division:
The division that produced the MBL’s first two champions (Colorado in 2000 and Houston in 2001) is quickly becoming one of the most intriguing divisions of the 2003 season. To begin with, the Buffaloes are hot in contention again. Having taken the division the last two seasons, Houston is off to a 22-11 start. They have some strong starters including Roy Halladay (already 7-2 with a 2.42 ERA) , CC Sabathia, John Thomson (3-0, 2.54) and iron man Darrell May. Their pen includes some big names as well: Recently acquired Keith Foulke, Troy Percival and Kaz Sasaki await the later innings. Houston combines a team ERA of 3.71 with an offense that has score 189 runs already. Andres Galarraga is hitting .382, Roberto Alomar is at .356 and Reggie Sanders has 8 home runs. With a +56 run differential, Houston appears to be the real deal, although it is interesting to note that they have played much better away from the cavernous Astrodome than inside it. It will be interesting to see if the Buffaloes are all in for 2003 and bolster the club with another strong starter and a few more offensive weapons.
Speaking of offensive weapons, the Arizona Apaches are belting the ball, leading the MBL in home runs. They now have 61 bombs on the year following a 4 game sweep of Colorado, including league leader Raffy Palmeiro with 13, Jose Valentin with 11, Gary Sheffield with 10 and Hank Blalock at 8. Of course, as the Tampa Bay Stone Ponys could tell you, home run hitting is not everything. The Apaches have a 4.02 team ERA led by Jerome Williams, who is 5-2 with a 2.35 ERA. The recent acquisition of Wade Miller from Minnesota may help. Miller has a 2.57 ERA since joining the Apaches. To contend with Houston, Arizona will probably have to sure up its bullpen. The Apaches have just a 4.57 ERA out of the bullpen with Brian Fuentes particularly struggling. Still with a top-ranked offense, Arizona should certainly compete all year, as their +45 run differential indicates.
The St. Louis Sliders have been a pleasant surprise this year. After a couple of miserable campaigns in which they ran through owners as quickly as they gave up runs, the Sliders have delighted their fans, getting off to a 20-13 start. How have they done it? Largely through pitching. While the offense is again toward the bottom of the MBL, St. Louis has an impressive 3.73 ERA, led by Steve Trachsel and Adam Eaton, who have ERAs of 2.23 and 2.58 respectively. Livan Hernandez and Wilson Alvarez have also pitched well in the rotation, giving the Slider starting staff a 3.50 ERA. Can the Sliders keep it up? I dare say it may be difficult. St. Louis has only a +7 run differential and have definitely had Lady Luck on their side early in the year. They are 6-2 in one run games and 3-0 in extra innings. With two tough division rivals, it is hard to say if they will wind up as buyers or sellers at the deadline.
The Briar Jumpers got off to a reasonable start, winning the first two games of the MBL season, splitting with Arizona and Houston and taking two out of three against the Millers. Since then the roof has caved in. They have lost their last 13 straight games and are just 2-23 in their last 25. They have already begun shipping their one and done players out the door and are likely to be in rebuilding mode in 2003. The good news: They are currently in pole position for the #1 pick in the ’04 draft as the only team yet to win 10 games.
Predictions: The outcome of this division may depend on which GM is willing to sell off the future to win now. And that may have to do with each club’s 04 prospects. Both Arizona and Houston appear to be focused on winning now. My gut says Houston may have the easier path to a division title, but both teams should be in the hunt. Things look bright in St. Louis but their roster may not be strong enough to compete with Houston and Arizona. It seems unlikely that Lance would make moves for 2003 given that ’04 and beyond could be very strong for this franchise. Colorado has a long way to go to reach their dizzying 2000 heights.
Continental Division:
The Continental has been a puzzling division so far this year. In 2002, Minnesota and LA battled for the top spot all year with the Millers pulling away down the stretch and eventually going all the way to the World Series. Baltimore upset the Diablos in the Wild Card. This year, LA topped many betting markets to walk away with the division but it was the Stouts who took the lead in the early going. One of only two franchises to make the playoffs in each of the MBL’s first three seasons, Baltimore certainly has some weapons in ’03. Alex Rodriguez, the reigning 2002 Expansion League MVP, already has 5 bombs and 21 RBI (although he is hitting just .240) while Aubrey Huff has 10 home runs and always-consistent Todd Helton has 9. Sammy Sosa was brought in from Colorado to sure up the lineup and has hit six homers and driven in 17 with the Stouts so far.
Prospects in Baltimore may lie with their starters. As always, this seems to be a weak spot on the Stout squad. Baltimore has just a 4.50 ERA from their starting staff that includes Tom Glavine (4.05), Woody Williams (4.11) and Matt Clement (5.65). Only Joel Pineiro has pitched well (3.44). Sensing that the staff needs to be bolstered, Bruce has acquired Al Leiter and Tim Wakefield and both have pitched well since joining the club. Baltimore is currently at 18-15 and just a half game back of Los Angeles, who is off to a 20-16 start. Interestingly, however, LA is under water with a -7 run differential while Baltimore is +22.
Things have not gone as planned so far for the Diablos. The Diablos began the year by splitting with lowly Milwaukee and then losing two out of three to San Francisco, Houston, Arizona and San Diego. Since then they have gotten hot, winning their last seven and sweeping both Colorado and Seattle. We’ll have to see if they are now righting the ship.
LA boasts of a wicked starting staff. Three-time Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez is 6-1 but has a rather high (for him) 3.61 ERA. That would figure to go down. Meanwhile Jason Schmidt has been unhittable with a 1.55 ERA. The Diablos tough start may have had as much to do with Johan Santana, Rick Reed and Kevin Milwood. All three have been underperforming in their starting roles. John Smoltz is a brutal closer to face in late innings. He’s pitched 12 innings so far this year and is yet to give up a run.
We’ll have to see if LA makes some deals to sure up the lineup. They are hitting just .241 as a team with a .316 OBP as compared with Baltimore’s .262 and .334. Dave Ross is off to a hot start with 11 homers and Carlos Beltran has hit 7 out but overall the Diablo lineup has struggled.
Minnesota seemed to have a contending squad coming into the season but after a .500 start, the Millers seem to be playing for the future. They have made a number of deals in recent weeks that seem to be evidence that Walt is gearing up for another big run in ’04 and beyond. Albert Pujols, however, is very much focused on this year. He is hitting .375 with 10 homers and 28 RBI. The Miller pitching staff, however, has just a 4.55 team ERA and that is unlikely to improve now that Russ Ortiz, Wade Miller, Tim Redding, Matt Morris and Keith Foulke have been dealt.
In Milwaukee, there is hope for better days ahead. John took over the franchise in 2001 when it was in dismal shape and is slowly nursing the club back to health. Future stars like Ted Lilly, Victor Martinez and Brandon Webb give Phantom fans hope but it’s been a slow road back since the Milwaukee blew a chance for a division title in the waning days of 2000.
With Milwaukee and Minnesota playing for the future, it will be a battle between Baltimore’s offense and LA’s pitching. Like the Western Division, the winning team is probably the one that can add enough pieces to pull ahead this year. Whether Bruce and Thomas put all their chips on their ’03 clubs is a question still awaiting an answer.
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