Guest Blog: Divisional Write ups part 3

Today Matt looks at the final division the Pacific and his over all prediction on who will win it all. -Craig

Pacific Division:

It’s always been tough for Viper fans. Always a poor club but never dreadful, the San Diego Vipers are one of only two franchises to never have a winning record (Brooklyn is the other) in the MBL. But it’s starting to look like this may finally be the Vipers’ year. Off to a 20-13 start, San Diego, currently has the league’s second best team ERA (3.23) and has been led by Kip Wells (5-2, 1.23 ERA) and Jeremi Gonzalez (2.39 ERA). Overall the team’s starting staff has an ERA of 3.08 and if Curt Schilling can right the ship (5.59 ERA), then look out.

Hitting, however, may prove to be the Viper’s bugaboo. They are only hitting .245/.319/.388 as a club and if they want to win the division they may need to improve on that mark. Richie Sexson is off to a good start hitting .301 with 10 dingers but no other Viper has hit more than 3 round trippers so far this year.

Following the Vipers, are three clubs whose future for 2003 remains uncertain. Oakland has won the division the last two seasons but are 17 and 16 and have lost four straight. They do have a +13 run differential so far this year. The Osprey have a solid offense at .261/.333/.437 and pretty good pitching (3.83 team ERA) led by Javier Vazquez’s 3.54 mark. The bullpen has been especially strong with Ugueth Urbina, Lance Carter, David Riske and Jamie Walker all supplying sub 2.00 ERAs. The starting staff will have to pitch well too if Oakland wants to threepeat as division winners.

Seattle and San Francisco seem to be on the cusp of buyers and sellers. Both teams have -9 run differentials with San Francisco at 17-19 and Seattle at 14-19. Neither team is really hitting the ball (.243 and .250 batting averages respectively) and Seattle has just a 5.12 team ERA. The Quakers have pitched alright at 3.98 but their bullpen has been much better than their starting staff. My sense is both teams may end up playing for next year before long. Still, it’s always possible that a club like this could follow Cleveland’s model for 2000 and go for it now. The decision-making in Oakland, Seattle and San Francisco may hinge on how strong the Vipers turn out to be. If SD starts to pull away, these three clubs may play for next year. If the Vipers stay with the pack, it could be anyone’s division. Still, my prediction would be that it is an Oakland-San Diego race with the Vipers enjoying the edge.

Overall Predictions:

Having looked at all six divisions, let’s make some predictions for the year. My money would be on Detroit, the Bombers and Atlanta to win the three divisions in the Classic while Houston, Los Angeles and San Diego are Expansion champs. The Wild Card races are a little tougher to call. Boston’s hot start seems likely to put them back in the Wild Card hosting position. The Washingtons may battle again to the wire and Cleveland looks strong. I would favor the Tribe to get the 5^th spot in the Classic. In the Expansion, I think Arizona has a good shot at one of the wild cards while Oakland and Baltimore seem likely to be in the mix. I’ll say Oakland comes away with the 5^th spot.

I think the Bombers are likely to find a way into the Series again. Boston, Atlanta and Detroit are all strong contenders but in the end, Larry is an excellent manager, a GM who wants to win now and a club that has the talent to do it. In the Expansion, LA’s starting staff will be very tough in the playoffs but this league is really wide-open. Houston, Arizona, LA, Baltimore, Oakland and San Diego all seem about even money to take the league. My money would be on whatever GM wants to win now and in the end, I think the Buffaloes are likely that team. I think we may end up with our first repeat champion, if the Bombers can take care of business as I would expect.