Thursday, January 14, 2016

From the Bottom Looking Up.

All the teams have submitted their keeper list now that the trading deadline has passed. I thought it would be interesting to look at the guys at the bottom of the standings and see how they stack up in their rebuilding programs. I took the keepers list of the 5 teams with the worst records in the league as of 1/12/15, and looked up each players WAR number for the upcoming 2003 season. Those teams are Philadelphia (25-94), Cincinnati (28-90), Milwaukee (32-86), Miami (41-77), St. Louis (46-76). If the season were to end today that would be the order of the top 5 for the 2003 draft. If we were to go off the career WAR numbers for the top 5 picks it would be:

Miguel Cabrera 64.7(Philly)
Chase Utley 62.3(Cinny),
Mark Teixeira 52.4(Milwaukee)
Cliff Lee 43.3(Miami)
Jose Reyes 36.8(St. Louis).

Of course we won't know exactly who will go where, but based of the WAR numbers that is where it falls out. Someone could take a pitcher higher, or maybe Corey wants a 1B before a 2B. Who knows. Anyway here are the teams with their 19 keepers (except for Miami with only 16?). Who has the best chance of competing in 03?

If your not sure what WAR represents it's a statistic in baseball to try and help compare players. This WAR number includes both offense and defense higher number the better. Baseball Reference breaks the numbers this way: +8 is MVP type player, 5-7.9 is a All-Star player, 2-4.9 is a starter type player, 0-1.9 is a sub or bench player, anything below a 0 is a replacement player.  To give you some more idea of what this number represents Barry Bonds was the WAR leader in 2003 with a WAR of 9.2 and Albert Pujols at 8.6.



Philadelphia
C Pena Det1.3
E Young SF-0.3
I-Rod Florida4.4
C Stynes Color2.3
J Rivera NY AL0.8
D Sadler Texas-0.1
R Clayton Mil-1.3
B Larkin Cin0.9
B Fordyce Bal-0.2
D Cruz Balt1.1
R Gonzalez Met0.3
E Perez StL0.4
T Wigg Mets-0.1
J Affeldt KC3.2
G Carrera Sea-0.6
J Lima KC1.2
T Ohka Mon2.6
G Rusch Mil-1.2
S Sullivan White Sox0.7
15.4

Daryl and the Firebirds have the 2nd lowest WAR of the group, so there is some rebuilding to do. He does have Ivan Rodriguez on his roster which helps. His players with negative WAR numbers add up to -3.8 WAR, assuming that Daryl takes Miggy that is not going to really help in 03. Miggy only has a 0.6 WAR for 2003. This is not saying that Daryl should not take Miggy, but the numbers just don't help him for the 2003 season.


Cincinnati Red Stockings
3B Sean Burroughs SD2
1B Tony Clark NYM-0.8
1B Andres Galarraga SF1
IF/OF Jolbert Cabrera LAD0.3
IF/OF Denny Hocking MIN0.6
OF Eric Byrnes OAK2.2
OF Endy Chavez MON-0.3
OF Brady Clark MIL0.4
OF Ricky Ledee PHI0.3
OF Shane Spencer TEX0.6
SP Kris Benson PIT-0.1
SP Kaz Ishii LAD0.7
SP Jason Jennings COL0.1
SP Darrell May KC5.9
RP Ricky Stone HOU0.6
RP Tanyon Sturtze TOR-0.4
RP TJ Tucker MON-0.2
RP Rocky Biddle MON-0.3
RP Kyle Farnsworth CHC1.3
13.9

Way back in 2000 Corey came in 3rd in his division but had a winning record. Players on the roster included Frank Thomas, Steve Finely, Nomar Garciaparra, Curt Schilling, Woody Williams, and Matt Mantei. If those players were still on his team he would have a much more solid base to what to work with. Instead he has 2 1st round picks, a 3rd and 4 4th round picks to work some magic. His negative players add up to a 2.1 WAR, so not as bad as Daryl above. However, Corey seems to lack that everyday All Star player on his squad. Best player on his squad right now is Darrell May with a 5.9 WAR for 2003. Unfortunately for Corey May falls back to earth in 2004.  


Milwaukee
Victor Martinez - CLE0.4
Carlos Delgado - TOR5.9
Ben Broussard - CLE0.8
Derek Jeter - NYY3.5
Bill Hall - MIL-0.5
Dmitri Young - DET3.4
Rob Mackowiak - PIT0.5
Carlos Lee - CHW3.2
Craig Biggio - HOU2.5
Michael Tucker - KCR-0.5
Kevin Mench - TEX0.3
Matt Lawton - CLE1.2
Ted Lilly - OAK2.3
Paul Wilson - CIN-0.1
Kyle Lohse - MIN2.3
Ryan Dempster - CIN-1.7
BJ Ryan - BAL1.6
Juan Cruz - CHC-0.7
Kent Mercker - ATL1.5
25.9

Welcome to Milwaukee! After several ownership changes to the smallest market in baseball the Phantoms might have found the stability they so desperately need. Out of the 5 teams in this article John has the upper hand in his keepers. Coming in with a 25.9 WAR he leads the bottom dwellers. Surprisingly, the Phantoms were surprisingly quiet before the trade deadline. John still has his 1st 4 round picks in this upcoming draft the only one missing is his 5th round pick that he traded to Philadelphia. Other than that he has all his picks. Milwaukee's negative WAR number is 3.5, however one player (Ryan Dempster) take up 1.7 of that number. Currently Mark Teixeira is projected to be picked at the 3rd pick, however John currently has Carlos Delgado at first. Does he take the first pitcher(Cliff Lee) at number three?


Miami
Mike Lieberthal PHI2.8
Rich Aurila SF0.7
Mark Grudzielanek CUBS2.3
Travis Lee TB3.5
Terrence Long OAK0
Edgar Martinez SEA3.3
Orlando Palmiero STL-0.5
BJ Surhoff BAL0.7
John Flaherty NYY0.6
Brian Anderson KC1.6
Joe Beimel PITT0.1
Mike Maroth DET0.2
Jason Marquis ATL-0.2
Todd VanPoppel TX-0.4
Jaime Walker DET0.9
Julian Tavarez PITT1.2
?????
?????
?????
16.8

Moving on to south beach with Mike and the Miami Panthers. Mike has 2 players in the 2's and 2 players in the 3's in WAR for 2003. He only has a total of 1.1 WAR of negative players. While Miami's total WAR number is 16.8 it could be a little higher if he had the full list of 19 keepers. Miami has all their draft picks from 1 to 10. Also, Mike has a extra 3 and 2 extra 4th round picks in the mix. 


StL Sliders
Paul Konerko CHW-0.6
Johnny Damon BOS3.4
Gary Matthews Jr SD1.5
Scott Hatteberg OAK1.4
Livan Hernandez MON6.3
Brian Schneider MON0.4
Steve Trachsel NYM4.4
Jeremy Burnitz LAD1.1
Felipe Lopez CIN-0.5
Morgan Ensberg HOU4.8
Todd Jones BOS-1.3
Wilson Alvarez LAD2.4
Alex Sanchez DET-0.1
Doug Mirabelli BOS0.4
Jamey Carroll MON0.2
Aaron Fultz TEX-0.2
Adam Eaton SD1.2
Kerry Robinson StL-0.9
Rob Bell TB0.1
24

I had to ask myself, have the Sliders ever been good? You can go back to the 2000 season where the Sliders had a winning season of 89-74. Since then it's been a rough road. There have been numerous ownership changes that have really handicapped the Sliders. Now under another new owner, Lance, things might be turning around. With a total team WAR of 24 things are looking better than they have for years. A player over six, two players over four, and a solid player in the three's Lance has a solid base to build from in 2003. The Sliders would even look better if their negative WAR number wasn't 3.6. Lance, has 2 first round picks to play with. He will pick fifth, and he also owns Arizona's first round pick.

***WHOOPS!!!!***
I didn't see the Cleveland Rock and Rollers. They should have been included in the top 5 and Miami should not be in the list.
Cleveland
Orlando Hudson TOR3.2
Juan Uribe COL1.2
Aramis Ramirez CHC1.9
Frank Cattalanto TOR2.1
Carl Crawford TPA2.3
Vernon Wells TOR4.5
Sean Casey CIN1.6
Matt Mantei ARI2.1
Ray Durham SFG3.2
Roger Clemens HOU4.1
Jake Westbrook CLE1
Toby Hall TPA1.6
Carl Pavano FLA2.3
Mike Redman FLA-0.4
Mike Hampton ATL1.9
Travis Hafner CLE0.5
Yorvit Torrebla SDP0.6
Shigetoshi Hasawawa3.2
Adam Everett2.3
39.2
Whoa! Look out Rust Belt Division here come the Rollers. While having a bad year in 2002, they stocked up on players if 2003. The last owner Brian left the team in shambles. Now Eric has come in and rebuilt a very solid team. Oh by the way Cleveland owns four first round picks, 4! Detroit has had it easy these past two year, but he might want to buckle up.

Who will rise in 2003 from the bottom? Baring in trades and from what each team has in draft picks. My opinion is that the Milwaukee Phantoms will be the most improved out of the 5 with the Sliders making good strides. Cincinnati, and Philadelphia have a long way to go, however if their owners make the right moves they can really look forward to 2004.   Miami seems to be on the right track as well.  Of course a lot can happen between now and the start of the 2003 season.  

**With the inclusion of Cleveland it looks like Cleveland is going to be the break out team. I am kinda glad that I didn't include Cleveland at first as the other 5 teams were closer together and made for a more interesting look.

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